Friday, March 18, 2011

Friday Morning 3/18

So this morning, I had plans to trade the USD/CAD after CPI data was released at 7am EST.  Since I don't normally trade this pair, I wasn't too sure how it would react initially following the release.  I'll go through my thought process of this trade:

Preparation:
Last evening, I identified pairs that would be in play for this morning.  I saw that CPI data was coming out for the USD/CAD, so I put that on my radar.  I then checked out my charts, noting important levels on larger time frames (Daily and Hourly, mosts charts smaller than that won't be as relevant by the time I'm ready to trade the next morning).

Plan:
After finding the important levels, I came up with my if/then statements.  I missed the initial down move, but since .9810-.9800 had been acting as support level for the past few days, I decided that
-If the price dropped to .9810 but couldn't break support, then I would get long one lot with a target of .9835-40 and with a stop at ..9805ish
-If the support level broke, then I would get short 1 lot with a target of .9760 and a stop at .9810

Note: I normally use mental stops

Patience:
The first 20 minutes not much happened, but I was patient and didn't close my position.  I was also showed patience when I was looking to enter because I waited for the price to pullback to almost exactly where I wanted it to (.9810).  I could have been more patient when my position went against me, because it eventually came back and moved into the money.

Hard Work:
I made sure that I was up early enough this morning to be prepared to trade, and I also put in work last night to find good opportunities for this morning.

Discipline:
I often have a problem getting shaken out by market noise, and I occasionally bend my own rules mid trade.  I did neither of those things this morning, and I mostly satisfied with my execution of the trade this morning.

Communication:
I used Twitter to share my trade idea and execution with other traders.  I also am writing this blog to share my thought process with other traders.  I will also discuss this trade in person later today with some friends.

Reliving the Trade:
Before I started this blog, I visualized myself making this trade and thought about what I could've done better.  My main problem with this trade was that I misjudged my risk/reward.  I should have risked a few more pips, which would have prevented me from being shaken out of my initial position.  I was able to get back in, but I lost some profit that I should have had.

All in all, my plan was good but my execution was poor.  Currently, the USD/CAD is well past my target of .9840.  Next time, I need to take more time to analyze my risk/reward so that I can catch the entire move.  I definitely shook the rust off today, and now its time to get ready for next week.  It feels good to be back!


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